This is worth repeating. Not writing a book about the Russo-Ukraine war (though will refer to it in what I am writing). OBrien PhillipsPOBrien worth noting that the ISW report saying that the Russians have lost the first stage of the war, suggests that the only way for them to recover is to regroup and resupply as outlined in this tweet thread. For those who dont know, Kharkiv is the second largest city in Ukraine (pop before the war of almost 1. Yes, Europe seems generally to have decided that Ukraine must win the war and Russia must (really) lose. Unknown how long it will be suspended for. Btw, here is a direct link to the McLaughlin piece. The fight to retake the city of Kherson plays to the Ukrainians strengths, not the Russians. Russians destroying the nordstream pipeline was always the most likely reality. Phillips P. A cause for celebration for people who live on the continent. So - the complete disruption of the Crimean bridge is more than real, possible, and effective. Phillips P. , Feb 2020, In American History. What is your background If we dont know that why should anything you say be taken seriously. Phillips P. May 8, 2022 To clarify on the averages, this is a daily average over the three days leading to that date, not the average over three days. Really is--though I wonder whether, with a few good debate performances, Tim Scott might move into the 2nd place. OBrien, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers. If the Ukrainians arent recapturing large parcels of territory now, its because that is not there main aim. So, while the communique was and is a real turkey as written (We will be in a position to extend an invitation), the end result might not be so bad. Two big stories of the week--the NATO Vilnius Summit has to be number 1. OBrien (PhillipsPOBrien) Twitter Follow Phillips P. 4 days ago Click to read Phillipss Newsletter, by Phillips P. 42, 7, p. The way Soviet logistics was so road centric (and weak for that) is telling. (thanks to Nrg8000 for this). OBrien PhillipsPOBrien People arguing to reduce support to Ukraine to try and save lives are either ignorant or deliberately lying and want to help Putin. Would be surprising if Ukraine had the heavy forces available there to attack the Russian army to the northeast of Kyiv. Phillips P. It would be impossible to send Zelensky back to Ukraine disappointed or let down. piece in early April 2022 on the Ukrainian Way of War. Nice way to end the day. Germany as the leading European power has special responsibility in this regard. lucky lucky you. Ukrainian counteroffensive, does seem to be a shift in the tone from western and Ukrainian sources. IMHO, whats happening now near Bakhmut is not The Big One We All Wait For. May 13, 2023 Phillips P. Saw Santa Maria dell&39;Ammiraglio yesterday, with astonishing 12th century mosaics. Interesting to see the most recent washingtonpost story about Ukrainian strategy around Bakhmut. Thats why we should help Ukraine now to win, then take advantage of what the Ukrainians have done to make better choices going forward. The most interestingimportant story of the morning in terms of how the war might develop. Phillips P. 708 AM &183; Apr 22, 2022 &183; Twitter Web App. Phillips P. Biden Administration calls for 33billion in military support for Ukraine. Phillips P. May 2, 2023 People trying to explain away Kirby&39;s remarks about Russian losses and Bakhmut miss the point. Phillips P. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. The Joint Chiefs of Staff, the atom bomb, the American military mind and the end of the Second World War O&39;Brien, P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Was so struck by what Admiral Radakin (the senior UK professional military officer) said in testimony to Parliament today, that I did a substack on it. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. Its mostly about the dramatic change of position yesterday and the decision to start preparing Ukraine for F-16s. About the. So brace yourself. Indeed, in many ways an even more difficult phase. I dont speak Ukrainian or Russian so dont think I could do it. Not writing a book about the Russo-Ukraine war (though will refer to it in what I am writing). TASS states railway traffic on the Crimea Bridge has been suspended. Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. Phone 44 (0)1334 46 1923. Nice to see German officials saying these things unequivocally and with pride. Is it impossible to see a Russia that can be integrated into Europe somehow in a decade. The daily avg over the three days was 28. All of this was to inflict maximum Rus casualties, "to bleed them out". May 9, 2022 What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. ukarticlerishi Revealed Rishi Sunak&x27;s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings. The King of OkrastanNywlessilloH. 971-991 Research output Contribution to journal Article peer-review The second most powerful man in the world the life of Admiral William D Leahy, Roosevelt&39;s Chief of Staff. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien That way they could gain access to working road and rail lines straight from Russia, which would allow later assaults on Kyiv and Odessa, once they had established large forward supply dumps closer to the targets. Phillips P. The King of OkrastanNywlessilloH. What you can see is that there have hardly been any Russian thrusts that have exceeded the natural limit set by their truck lift. Phillips P. This would make it one of the longest major battles in the 20th and 21st centuries. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Phillips P. See new Tweets. This is an historic step which makes all NATO Allies. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. comPhillipsPOBrienstatus1568971589827579906s20 At that time, I assumed that the Ukrainians if they went on the offensive, would definitely. People might reflect on the fact that much of the original reporting on where Ukraine is probing is exactly where the Russians might have expected them to attack--and where the Russians had strong positions. Phillips P. 1104 AM &183; Aug 29, 2022 &183; Twitter Web App. They are being very tight-lipped. Those who like to amplify Russian nuclear threats always (conveniently) overlook the fact hat China will lose strategically. Really pleased that this is out in TheAtlantic An article by MBielieskov and myself which describes what we see as Ukrainian strategy over the last few months in fighting for small cities and towns such as Bakhmut. Im sure thats right--people tell themselves all the time with Trump that they can control him, or curb his worst excesses. Phillips P. Quote Tweet. Hello Everyone, well the big story of the week was the NATO summit at Vilnius, and in particular what that said about how the war might develop and then what will happen with Ukraine and NATO after the war. The King of OkrastanNywlessilloH. Phillips OBrien is a Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Editor in Chief, War in History. 4 days ago Click to read Phillipss Newsletter, by Phillips P. Good Morning Everyone--just sent out my weekend update (its free). If he didnt declare war, or a general mobilisation, thats what important. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Been watching the events of the last 18 hours closely, and have to say this looks like a far more well-planned out coup attempt than it first appeared. Unknown how long it will be suspended for. However, tbh, since the last update far less has happened on the ground than you might think. 5k is not a bad baseline. One story that seemed to take off, was that the Russians had massed a huge force not only of newly trained soldiers, but also tanks and aircraft and that they were poised to mount a hammer blow attack on Russian forces. Log in. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien As someone who has been very critical of Russian military performance and complimentary of the way the Ukrainians have defended themselves, I do think we need to be careful arguing that Ukraine can somehow easily take on a long war or make extreme demands in a peace treaty. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien The argument that Ukraine cant be given a clear pathway to NATO membership because that would mean NATO would have to go to war with Russia now, is truly baffling. And the Russians seem to have had issues with this too. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Editor in Chief, War in History. Its a vindication of their decision to force the Russians to fight for the city for the last few months and an example of the fundamental weaknesses in Russian war making. Some key things Ukrainian counteroffensive has just started (its not a failure people). Subscribe to Phillips OBriens substack here. Follow us on Twitter here. In this conversation. I know we have been hearing a great deal about how the Russian military has been getting its act together and improving its logistics, but the evidence on the ground is hard to see. Russians destroying the nordstream pipeline was always the most likely reality. On February 28, 2022 I tweeted out, in a basic argument that I still stand by, that Russia had already lost the war as it lacked the economic strength to prosecute it to. A thread on breakthroughs as some are sending me reports of Russian advances near Popasna and saying this doesnt square with what the Pentagon is saying about incremental, slow Russian advances. First time Ive seen a clear Ukrainian claim on this. Phillips P. We cannot ignore the critical importance of air power in modern warfare. OBrien Retweeted ISW Institute for the study of war daily report, Ukrainian attacks in the northeast are causing Russian problems. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien I know there is alot of skepticism by some who strongly support Ukraine, but on balance this NATO summit needs to be seen as a very successful one for Ukraine and the future, just marred by a very poor statement. Phillips P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Zelensky holds phone call with China&39;s Xi Jinping. Saw Santa Maria dell'Ammiraglio yesterday, with astonishing 12th century mosaics. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. Born and raised in Boston, he graduated from Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut before working on Wall Street for two years. Phillips P. Hi everyone, just sent out my weekend update. Apr 5, 2022 Its important to be skeptical of any government claiming losses inflicted on an enemy, historically such figures can be grossly inflated. I know this parallel is not exact. Phillips P. Now that the Kremlin has confirmed the death of Prigozhin, we can categorically say the decision of the Ukrainians to fight for Bakhmut (which ended up devastating Wagner) was the right choice. Many times longer than Kursk,e Bagration Normandy, Bulge, etc. Wow--and estimates I heard in Ukraine would be that about one third of all of these Russians casualties would have occurred in and around Bakhmut. Sign up. This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. Apr 28, 2022 Gosh, would never have imagined this. Glad to announce that after the meeting I hosted with RTErdogan & SwedishPM, President Erdogan has agreed to forward Sweden&39;s accession protocol to the Grand National Assembly ASAP & ensure ratification. 541 AM &183; Mar 8, 2022 &183; Twitter Web App. Jan 3, 2023 Bear in mind that the Soviets were already in Poland by D-Day. Phillips P. Verified account Protected Tweets ; Suggested users. Who are you You hide behind anonymity and act an expert. This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. Phillips P. Phillips P. The most interesting interview Ive seen this. 35-41 7 p. Can I ask people who have questions on the thread that they want asked to put them in this tweet I will try to work through them. Not writing a book about the Russo-Ukraine war (though will refer to it in what I am writing). I am a real person. Hope that is ok Once again, the line barely moved this week, but it might have been the most momentous week of the war since February 24, 2022. Wow--and estimates I heard in Ukraine would be that about one third of all of these Russians casualties would have occurred in and around Bakhmut. This is needed to stop Russian aggression, help Ukraine and restore peace in Europe quickly. This article in Foreign Policy, might have been the most extreme example. This war is using up material in massive quantitiesin ways that before February 24 would have been unimaginable. Mar 20, 2022 Phillips P. A plea to any of my Spanish followers (or those who understand Spanish politics). Quote Tweet. And why this is a lesson on the stupidity of war. BoringWar" Twitter Phillips P. President Biden on Friday denounced Russia for having "launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This last one helped with geolocation of the first one. Those who like to amplify Russian nuclear threats always (conveniently) overlook the fact hat China will lose strategically. Phillips P. Phillips P. 807 PM Jul 13, 2023. Phillips P. By slow-walking different military support for Ukraine, this war has become longer, bloodier and crossed certain lines (cluster munitions) that people were not imagining back on Feb 24. Phillips P. Phillips P. Phillips P. Quote Tweets. This is an attempt to systematize it. However, lets wait and see. Mar 20, 2022 Phillips P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. Saw Santa Maria dell'Ammiraglio yesterday, with astonishing 12th century mosaics. The fight to retake the city of Kherson plays to the Ukrainians strengths, not the Russians. If Zelensky is going to Vilnius, the deal has to be basically done and has to be one with which Ukraine is happy. These stories have been coming in all morning. Really pleased that this is out in TheAtlantic An article by MBielieskov and myself which describes what we see as Ukrainian strategy over the last few months in fighting for small cities and towns such as Bakhmut. Andrews in Scotland, said, What they were actually trying to do was logistically bonkers. They had the strategic need and the capabilities. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien This fits in with an estimate of the Institute for the Study of War last night, which wondered if the Russians were even able to launch an assault on Kyiv in the coming period. Born and raised in Boston, he graduated from Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut before working on Wall Street for two years. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien This might be counter-intuitive, but the mediocre (to be kind) performance of the Russian military in Kyiv means that Europe and the USA do not need to rush out and spend billions more right away on their militaries. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien People arguing to reduce support to Ukraine to try and save lives are either ignorant or deliberately lying and want to help Putin. Ukraine will be expecting to be more offensive as the Russians bog down, but in being offensive they dont want to suffer high casualties. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. With all the focus on ground equipment, we cant forget that the foundation of Ukrainian success. For a number of reasons. 54, 6, p. People seem to have a real difficulty distinguishing between a success and a failure in this war. Would be surprising if Ukraine had the heavy forces available there to attack the Russian army to the northeast of Kyiv. In this conversation. So a clear package to extend Ukrainian ranged attacks while protecting Ukrainian forces. Apr 5, 2022 Its important to be skeptical of any government claiming losses inflicted on an enemy, historically such figures can be grossly inflated. Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)" Twitter. Delved into 3 questions--the importance of Biden's visit to Kyiv, Chinese policy, and the ongoing Russian offensive. A tweet thread on why we are almost certainly overestimating the amount of strength the Russian Army has on hand, and the. Verified account Protected Tweets ; Suggested users. This is an historic step which makes all NATO Allies. Sign up. The most interestingimportant story of the morning in terms of how the war might develop. These stories have been coming in all morning. Gosh, would never have imagined this. Mar 16, 2022 U. president so united the West or faced such a dire foreign policy crisis as Joe Biden, let alone orchestrated our most hostile enemy suffering its. Phillips OBrien is a Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Hi everyone, just sent out my weekend update (its free). assesses that Russia now has 76 battalion tactical groups inside Ukraine, an increase of 11 over last week senior U. By the way, I&39;m in Palermo and enormously impressed. See new Tweets. Sign up. 971-991 Research output Contribution to journal Article peer-review The second most powerful man in the world the life of Admiral William D Leahy, Roosevelt&39;s Chief of Staff. defense official Russia is continuing to reinforce Ukraine&39;s east and south, and has no units left in the north, near the capital of Kyiv. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien 28m Gosh, hope the UK government is going to sell out Ukraine. What it means is that when things went wrong, there was signficant problem adjusting. Said it before, but will say it again. Final comment on the Moskva thinking because it encapsulates what is now apparent. 50 of its military capabilities since the full scale invasion. Jul 9, 2023 Just sent out the weekend update (its free). Im sure thats right--people tell themselves all the time with Trump that they can control him, or curb his worst excesses. Phillips P. Can you explain this political map I dont see any obvious split between left and right (urban-rural, north-south, etc). First Ive seen of members of congress, tedlieu AdamKinzinger RepHoulahan that is well thought out and structured on AirPower. Mar 19, 2022 Phillips P. Phillips P. Thought I would bring this tweet back up from the start of the war. Its not a historical air show. Ukraine will be expecting to be more offensive as the Russians bog down, but in being offensive they dont want to suffer high casualties. Actually, the position of Admiral William Leahy, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Chief of Staff to Pres Roosevelt and Truman was exactly that. An early weekend update, building on this tweet thread of yesterday, this morning&39;s sitrep from GeneralStaffUA does have more elements of confidence on the situation stabilizing in the Donbas, that seem noteworthy (at least to me). Sometimes we get caught up in past assumptions and cant see whats right in front of our faces. Jens Stoltenberg. Whatever intrigues me--these days the Russo-Ukraine War with regular departures. See new Tweets. Surprised to see him so high in New Hampshire already (relatively speaking). Nice way to end the day. OBrien added, Jack Detsch Verified account JackDetsch Russia would beat Ukraine in a virtual wargame in 72 to 96 hours, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. The daily avg over the. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, univofstandrews , Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. And the Russians seem to have had issues with this too. When clarity was called for, they created a word salad. my utica park clinic, michael myers halloween pumpkin stencil
OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. . Phillips obrien twitter
Russia has suffered major losses, the Ukrainians are stringing the Russians out over a massive area, trying to create weak points. Certainly a move to change from a maximalist victory (all of Ukraine into Russia) into a limited victory (as much of the south coast as possible and parts of eastern Ukraine which were strongly Russian speaking in the past (Kharkiv, etc) would be more achievable militarily. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. So brace yourself. 4 days ago Click to read Phillipss Newsletter, by Phillips P. OBrien 100 25. David Berger said. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. The daily avg over the three days was 28. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Sunday update, the shift in focus is to the west (Kherson Front) as Ukraine is preparing the ground for a counteroffensive and Russian attempts to continue to move forward in the Donbas are petering out. Phillips P. Mar 20, 2022 Phillips P. So, while the communique was and is a real turkey as written (We will be in a position to extend an invitation), the end result might not be so bad. 971-991 Research output Contribution to journal Article peer-review The second most powerful man in the world the life of Admiral William D Leahy, Roosevelt&39;s Chief of Staff. Andrews in Scotland. 1 link. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien worth noting that the ISW report saying that the Russians have lost the first stage of the war, suggests that the only way for them to recover is to regroup and resupply as outlined in this tweet thread. See new Tweets. Jul 11, 2023 Sometimes we get caught up in past assumptions and cant see whats right in front of our faces. If you are Ukraine, so some probing, realise advancing. Never in my lifetime has a U. The most interestingimportant story of the morning in terms of how the war might develop. See new Tweets. 908 PM &183; Apr 14, 2022 &183; Twitter Web App. 730 AM Jan 21, 2023. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Was so struck by what Admiral Radakin (the senior UK professional military officer) said in testimony to Parliament today, that I did a substack on it. Not writing a book about the Russo-Ukraine war (though will refer to it in what I am writing). Aqu&237; nos gustar&237;a mostrarte una descripci&243;n, pero el sitio web que est&225;s mirando no lo permite. Mar 5, 2022 Phillips P. Thought I would bring this tweet back up from the start of the war. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrews, Author How the War was Won, and Second Most Powerful Man in the World. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. Phillips P. OBrien Retweeted Forces News One of the reasons the famous 40-mile convoy is such a disaster is that much of it is valuable trucks--which are not probably out of fuel, with dead batteries, stuck in the mud and not salvageable. Phillips P. But also want to point out that logistics is also a complex system, increasingly so as it reached out from depots into long supply lines as part of an advance. All these three are from roughly the same place. Illia Ponomarenko. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien This is Russian TV finally realizing the disaster Russian faces (with no answers of course). Ukraine will be expecting to be more offensive as the Russians bog down, but in being offensive they dont want to suffer high casualties. Quote Tweets. Quote Tweet. , 2020, In Journal of Strategic Studies. Whatever intrigues me--these days the Russo-Ukraine War with regular departures. , Feb 2020, In American History. Phillips P. Thanks TracyBorman. I know this parallel is not exact. He was formerly at the University of Glasgow where he ran the Scottish Centre for War Studies. Phillips P. People might reflect on the fact that much of the original reporting on where Ukraine is probing is exactly where the Russians might have expected them to attack--and where the Russians had strong positions. Verified account Protected Tweets ; Suggested users. 4 days ago Click to read Phillipss Newsletter, by Phillips P. So a clear package to extend Ukrainian ranged attacks while protecting Ukrainian forces. Thats another way to say it. https isw. The Russian fight for Bakhmut alone (which they still havent taken) considering its been going on for 9-10 months, is probably equal to US casualties in the whole Korean War. For large Russian armies, the interaction of truck and train is usually the most important, which air supply more limited to specialist operations. If Zelensky is going to Vilnius, the deal has to be basically done and has to be one with which Ukraine is happy. To clarify on the averages, this is a daily average over the three days leading to that date, not the average over three days. What rhetoric Putin used in his speech is immaterial. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien &183; Mar 14. Phillips P. Crucially they now seem fully established across the Oskil River. Ukrainian counteroffensive, does seem to be a shift in the tone from western and Ukrainian sources. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. Home Home Home. Phillips P. Nice way to end the day. errorContainer background-color FFF; color 0F1419; max-width. Sign up. Phillips P. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. We would like to show you a description here but the site wont allow us. 633 PM &183; May 20, 2022 &183; Twitter Web App. In this conversation. 1 link. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien. All of this was to inflict maximum Rus casualties, "to bleed them out". Thought I would bring this tweet back up from the start of the war. OBrien PhillipsPOBrien Just interesting to see that the most senior military person in the USA (Leahy outranked everyone, being the first 5-star officer) both did not want to use the atomic bomb and did not want to invade Japan. Thats a failure. Log in. According to Kyrylo Budanov, head of Defense Ministrys Intelligence Directorate, Russia will try a Korean scenario by creating a separate political entity in the Russian-occupied regions. My latest piece for TheAtlantic just dropped, why a smarter, more diverse and intellectually flexible (woke) army is much better than the hyper masculine, forces that are often seen as the military paradigm. Well thats a sign of how cowed the Russian Navy is--Zelensky visits Zmiinyi Island (Snake Island) is daylight. First time Ive seen a clear Ukrainian claim on this. Phillips P. Home Home Home. Its not even to revert back to the 24 Feb border, its to take everything it holds now. Of course the tragedy of this is that Barbie has ended up one of the last great realists--and we will hear how Taiwan must be. Writing about grand strategy, war, history, Romanesque and Baroque buildings I love, Sicily, and pretty much. Hi All, MBielieskov and I just released the latest Ukraine-Russia War Talk Podcast. assesses that Russia now has 76 battalion tactical groups inside Ukraine, an increase of 11 over last week senior U. Published this piece in TheAtlantic yesterday where I tried to articulate the Ukrainian strategy in Kherson of build-up, tempt in, and destroy. Jul 17, 2023 Get asked this a lot. OBrien Retweeted Forces News One of the reasons the famous 40-mile convoy is such a disaster is that much of it is valuable trucks--which are not probably out of fuel, with dead batteries, stuck in the mud and not salvageable. You have to stick to better roads, they are less robust and you cant stock spare parts for all the different models. But also want to point out that logistics is also a complex system, increasingly so as it reached out from depots into long supply lines as part of an advance. Well thats a sign of how cowed the Russian Navy is--Zelensky visits Zmiinyi Island (Snake Island) is daylight. 312 PM &183; Apr 28, 2022 &183; Twitter for iPhone. 42, 7, p. Phillips P. Every once in a while an immense challenge appears which only the crazy few can handle. So there is a difference there. My guess is that reform will take longer than the next few months. OBrien added, Jack Detsch Verified account JackDetsch Russia would beat Ukraine in a virtual wargame in 72 to 96 hours, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. , 2020, In Journal of Strategic Studies. Phillipss Newsletter By Phillips P. Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)" Twitter. Quote Tweet. Tomorrow a new one arises. Phillips P. Btw, here is a direct link to the McLaughlin piece. Tweets with replies by Phillips P. If, like the Russians, you waste your forces endlessly attacking Bakhmut, but take the city eventually. First time Ive seen a clear Ukrainian claim on this. Btw these attacks to the northeast threaten the supplies of the long Russian attack from Sumy to Kyiv. Will have to revisit that in 10 days on the anniversary (think it was around May 20, 2022. Phillips P. . homedepot exterior doors